U.S. Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, lower than the previous forecast that the first quarter was up 2.4% - Picture: Getty.
U.S.
stock market rally on Monday in a row, won a share of the losses in the
last few sessions as investors worried the Fed at risk of early
withdrawal of stimulus measures.
For the first time since the release 20/6 so far, the S & P 500 back above 1,600 points. Da sell-off in the market has basically stopped. Two recent sessions, buying volume has increased dramatically, the overwhelming number of sales. This led many analysts believe that the market started to turn following earlier changes.
All 10 industry groups in the index stocks S & P 500 gained, led by stocks of medical care and multidisciplinary. Most notable is the share of Johnson & Johnson. Its shares rose 1.9% to $ 86.99. Experts said the market, many investors are pouring money into stock rather than rushing drawn as before.
The
main reason the U.S. stock investors less worried about the possibility
of the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) early withdrawal of stimulus
measures in the near future, because GDP figures published yesterday. Specifically, U.S. Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, lower than the previous forecast that the first quarter was up 2.4%.
The
GDP growth figures lower than the estimate of analysts is likely to
affect the Fed's assessment of the stability of the economy on the path
of recovery, and this can that
the Fed will abandon the intention to recover the quantitative easing
measures, which worked to promote the market over time.
End of day trading 26/6, the Dow Jones industrial index rose by 149.83 points, corresponding to 1.02%, to 14910.14 points. S & P 500 index gained 15.23 points, corresponding to 0.96%, closing the day up at 1603.26 points. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite gained 28.34 points, or 0.85%, to 3376.22 points.
As of the past two sessions, the S & P 500 gained 1.9%, the most Tott within 3 weeks after the sell-off fluctuations. Last week, S & P 500 had its worst week since January 4/2013. Currently the index is still important to all-time peak of 1669.16 during the session is set 21/5, at around 4%.
VIX
volatility measure of state investors in the U.S. stock market has been
reduced by 6.8% to 17.21 points, indicating the market's fears are
eased. Volume traded in the market average, with about 6.48 billion shares traded on all three floors New York, American and Nasdaq.
► Domestic gold prices are shown "weakness" than the international price of gold ...
SJC gold price movements in DOJI - Source: DOJI.
Maintain
international gold price trend of recovery, but domestic prices have
not brake this afternoon and dropped straight slide 36 million / tael. Compared with the opening this morning, where the price of gold fell more than 1 million / tael.
Late
this afternoon (27/6), Gold and Silver Corporation DOJI listed SJC
Hanoi market at 36.35 million / tael (purchase) and 36.65 million / tael
(sold out), down 610,000 dong / tael in the afternoon buying and selling side against the early hours of the morning.
Earlier, SJC gold prices at this unit has dropped to the level of 36.1 million / tael.
At
the same time the market in Ho Chi Minh City, the company Saigon
Jewelry (SJC) SJC gold quotes at 36 million dong / tael and 36.65
million / tael, equivalent to the purchase price and the selling price. If
compared to the open this morning, SJC gold price in the company fell
1.15 million / tael for buying and reduce 800,000 dong / tael for sale.
Domestic gold prices are shown "weakness" than the international price of gold. World gold prices from morning to afternoon held a slight recovery trend, but the domestic gold price keeps "evaporated".
On charts, gold prices are the lowest since the beginning of the month 2/2011. Since the beginning of this coming week, SJC gold price has lost about $ 2.8 million / tael. Gold
prices lost landmark 38 million / tael on Monday, slipping further 37
million dong / tael this morning, and is currently eyeing up Cambodian
risk of mold caused 36 million / tael.
Domestic
gold prices fell rapidly, contrary to the trend of recovery in the
world price of gold so gold price differences in water-short world is
drawn in part. Late
this afternoon, the world gold price USD converted at similar free 31.8
million / tael, lower than the retail price of SJC gold in water for
4.8 million / tael. The price difference is close to $ 6 million / tael yesterday and fell on over 5 million / tael this morning.
At
nearly 17 pm this afternoon, spot gold prices in the European market
increased 11.1 USD / oz compared to the New York close, trading at wor $
1,237.3 / oz.
According to analysts, gold prices move in today's recovery is due to buying at low prices of a number of Asian investors. In
addition, Q1 GDP statistics less satisfactory adjusted that the U.S.
Commerce Department announced last night also reduces the expectation of
the Federal Reserve Board this country (FED) narrow monetary policy
easing (QE ), which support the gold price.
However, the gold price has not recovered from the bottom of the high-set 3 years yesterday. Downward pressure on gold is still at large.
"The psychology of investors is quite bad at the moment," a trader in Hong Kong said. "For investors back to gold prices should be cut down and open up a new rally."
From the beginning of this year, international investors have turned to gold significantly. Compared
to the beginning of the year, gold prices have fallen more than 26% and
is now poised to complete its worst quarterly decline since at least
1968.
ABN Amro is the latest bank to cut gold forecasts. The bank cut its forecast for the 2013 core $ 1,100 / oz from $ 1,300 / oz previously given. Gold
price forecast for 2014 was also key cut for 900 USD / oz from $ 1,000 /
oz, with facility is operational gold sales of investment funds.
"There
is no reason to hold gold because investors bullish outlook for gold
prices and uncertain income does not bring anything," ABN Amro analysts
wrote in a report.
Demand for physical gold is still no positive signs at the top gold consumer, India and China. On April price cuts, people in this country buy gold during the Olympics. Currently
India's gold market was in doldrums for gold import duty, while the
Chinese market was negatively affected by concerns about tightening
credit sources.
► Ministry of Planning and Investment has launched a number of executive direction of the economy and government ministries ...
Ministry
of Planning and Investment will provide further direction of interest
rates at reasonable levels, consistent with the evolution of inflation
and macro-economic
Ministry
of Planning and Investment has predicted the last 6 months the
situation and the solution needs to focus mainly in operating and
managing the economy.
Report
to the Government for breakfast 27/6, the Minister of Planning and
Investment Bui Quang Vinh said that with the economic developments in
the country and the world through time and coming prospects, the growth
rate of GDP last
6 months of the country can achieve higher first 6 months of 2012 and
the whole year GDP growth could reach the goal of the plan is 5.5%.
The
consumer price index in the last months may be higher than a year
earlier mainly due to production and business activities gradually
recovered, improved purchasing power, a number of goods and services
subject to such government management electric
hospital ... can adjust prices, the resolution of bad debts in the
banking system and real estate market, and the coordination between
monetary policy and fiscal policy, ... will support aggregate demand improves.
Maintain industrial production recovery and achieve a higher growth rate in the second quarter of last year. Services continued to grow at a higher growth last year. Difficulties in agriculture and aquaculture will be gradually removed.
For
activities - will continue to import vibrant, while export growth will
remain higher than planned; imports continued positive changes due to
production activities and consumer recovery; rates may rise in the trade deficit in the last months but still within manageable levels. Manufacturing activities, business enterprises will gradually improve, although still difficult.
With
that prediction, Ministry of Planning and Investment has launched a
number of executive direction of the economy and government ministries.
Specifically,
monetary policy, fiscal, will continue operating loan interest rates at
reasonable levels, consistent with the evolution of inflation and
macro-economy, remove obstacles and create favorable
conditions for businesses to access capital, capital flows direction to
production with specific solutions to help businesses also continue
borrowing prospects for production and business priorities for the
agricultural sector, Rural exports.
Executive
reasonable credit growth, in line with annual targets, actively
implemented credit policy loans to support social housing, commercial
housing for low-income earners, difficult to remove difficult
for households aquaculture and livestock, consider debt restructuring
plans, and maintain secured loan if consumption. Consistent
implementation of measures to stabilize the exchange rate to ensure the
USD value, contributing to macroeconomic stability. Soon the rules and procedures of buying - sell, export - import of gold.
Along with the project expeditiously restructure credit institutions period 2011-2015. Promoting
activities of Asset Management Company (VAMC), contributing to handle
bad debt, credit lines opened, promote manufacturing operations,
business development, tightly controlled exchange rate, market gold targets, ensure domestic prices closer to the world price of gold.
The
ministries should continue to review and adjust mechanisms and policies
no longer appropriate, promptly remove difficulties for production and
business activities. Implementation
of measures to accelerate the construction schedule, the disbursement
of capital construction investment, especially in the ongoing project
can be completed and put into use soon. To attract and disbursement of FDI and ODA.
► Gold prices fell rapidly making businesses cautious gold high, wide stretch arbitrage buy-sell gold ...
JC gold price movements in DOJI - Source: DOJI.
Despite the international gold price moving "green" today (27/6) in the Asian market, domestic prices continued to plunge. 37 million dong / tael further broken after falling off the landmark SJC 38 million / tael yesterday.
At
9:30, the Group reported DOJI Jewelry SJC Hanoi market at 36.16 million
/ tael (purchase) and 36.96 million / tael (sold out), down 1
respectively, 09 million / tael and 540,000 dong / tael compared to late yesterday afternoon.
At
the same time the market in Ho Chi Minh City, the company Saigon
Jewelry (SJC) SJC gold price listed at 36.6 million dong / tael and 37
million dong / tael, equivalent to the purchase price and the selling
price . If
compared to yesterday afternoon, SJC gold price in this business is
less than 550,000 dong / tael for buying and VND 500,000 / tael for
sale.
Gold prices fell rapidly making businesses cautious gold high, stretching wide-spread on gold sales. Currently on the market, buy SJC gold price lower than the price of a ranging from 400,000 VND / volume to 800,000 dong / tael.
The caution when increasing the State Bank offered 40,000 gold this morning. The bid is equivalent to 1.5 tons of gold, more than half compared with a bid in recent sessions.
As
gold price chart, from the beginning of May 2/2011 to date, which is
nearly 2 and a half years back, when the SJC is not available today. If from the beginning of this year, gold prices have dropped almost 10 million / tael.
During the gold price fell in mid-April, many people have bought gold for about $ 39.5 million / tael. If you cut the hole in the moment, the damage will amount to nearly 3 million per tael.
Since the beginning of this coming week, SJC gold was down 2.4 million / tael. Particularly early in the morning through to the present, gold prices fell nearly 1.6 million / tael. However, compared to the world price of gold exchange, gold price is still higher than 5 million / tael.
The
business of gold in Hanoi, said gold prices down "shock" pushed gold
trading volumes in recent days increased significantly. People will buy a major, but largely only buy small.
Free
USD in Hanoi this morning 21290-21300 at the popular (purchased) and
the 21320-21330 (sold out), down slightly from yesterday morning.
Commercial banks continue to hold prices stable dollar. USD quotes at Vietcombank is the same at 21 025 and 21 036 VND, buy and sell, respectively, equal to yesterday's. Eximbank also keep this exchange at the level of 21 015 and 21 036 dong.
Low purchasing power in the international price of gold has taken strong recovery in Asia this morning. At
9:30 am Vietnam time, spot gold prices up 17.6 USD / oz (1.4%) compared
with the New York session, to $ 1,243.8 / oz, equivalent to nearly 32
million / tael.
Last night, the price of gold in New York closed down $ 52.4 / oz, equivalent to 4.1%, and $ 1,226.2 / oz. This is close to the lowest price of gold in the international 3 years.
International
gold price pressure fell sharply after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
announced last week could potentially cut policy of quantitative easing
(QE) in the period from now until the end of the year. In
addition, gold prices also fell as investors move funds into the stock
market and concerns about the decline in physical gold demand in China
and India.
Rate Euro / USD in Tokyo this morning at the popular 1.3 USD / Euro, from less than $ 1.31 / Euro in yesterday morning. Light
sweet crude oil futures in New York at 9:45 am Vietnam time is $ 95.63 /
barrel, up $ 0.13 / barrel compared with closed last night.
► The difference between domestic and international gold remains high and there is no sign down ..
According
to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the effectiveness of
stabilization policies the gold market is still limited
Many
of results monetary policy has been shown, but the effectiveness of
stabilization policies the gold market is still limited.
That
is the assessment of the Ministry of Planning and Investment of
operating monetary policy in the second quarter of this year at the
Government's regular meeting in June, am 27/6.
Report
by the Minister Bui Quang Vinh presented shows that in the first 6
months of the year, the State Bank has made cuts deposit rates and
lending rates, contributing to solve difficulties for business
operations business.
The
growth rate of capital mobilization and lending gradually improved
liquidity of the system is relatively stable, the rate of credit growth,
after falling in the month of 1/2013, has bounced back from May 2/2013 far. The
Asset Management Company (VAMC) was established and put into operation
in the near future will help solve the bad debt, increase liquidity for
the banking system, thereby helping the bank to accelerate stream flows economic capital in the last 6 months.
Along
with the exchange rate tends to rise slightly; forex market movements
relatively stable, the State Bank to continue buying large amounts of
foreign currency contributed to foreign exchange reserves of the State
meet exchange for 12 weeks of imports, gold trading is gradually put into operation more stable than before.
However,
according to Minister Bui Quang Vinh, the effectiveness of
stabilization policies the gold market is still limited, the difference
between domestic and international gold remains high (approximately 5-6
million / tael) and no sign of abating. The
interest rate has reduced but the difference between the deposit rate
and lending has not decreased, the credit access many obstacles. Credit to the economy has improved, but the growth rate was still low compared to demand growth.
As of 20.06.2013, the total liquidity (M2) was estimated to grow at 7.1% vs. 12/2012 (the same period increased 7.51%). Total customer deposits at credit institutions was estimated to increase about 8.18%. Credit to the economy estimated to be approximately 3.31%.
► deposit rates, lending rates in VND and USD may be reduced during the day tomorrow ..
Also plan to cap interest rates for 7%, the State Bank may remove the ceiling interest rate of 6 months.
For
tomorrow, a series of interest rates, lending rates in VND and USD may
be reduced, which is remarkable ceiling deposit rate will be reduced by
0.5%.
Information was deputy governor of the State Bank Nguyen Dong Tien said at a regular government meeting, afternoon 27/6.
According
to Tien, in addition to plans to raise the interest rate ceiling of 7%,
the State Bank may remove the ceiling interest rate of 6 months. In
addition, the agency is also expected to raise U.S. interest rates
because of their ability to control inflation and geographical balance
tool using the interest rate is a positive sign.
"In the near future or even tomorrow, lending rates to 5 priority areas will be reduced from 10% to 9% / year. As interest rates may have certain adjustments, is 7.5% less than a year, can be reduced to 7%, "Leader said the State Bank.
According
to the State Bank of leadership, in the context of people tend to shift
savings from local currency into U.S. dollars, the State Bank will
consider a step adjustment for foreign currency deposits, deposit rates
from population 2% can be reduced to a lower level, deposits held can also reduce economic.
However,
according to Tien, the interest rate is almost limited to final
adjustment, because inflation around 7%, while interest rates have
fallen about 7%. In case of further reducing or not depends on controlling inflation.
"Dramatically
reduce interest rates make income credit institutions significantly
affected, many units are no longer profitable. Interest
rate differential input and output if unrealized reserve only 3%, while
the backup was done only 1.93%, "said deputy governor Nguyen Dong Tien
said.
Leaders of the State Bank also confirmed to be effective now, the credit should be poured into it. Therefore, the credit balance still gain the ability to read 12%, and possibly higher.
Related
to the gold market, deputy governor admits, higher gold price
differences, though this time the credit institution has completed gold
account. State Bank does not extend to any other organization.
►
Mold appointment 30/6: Gold is completely eliminated in mobilizing
capital structure of commercial banks, going to look like? ...
State Bank has basically done processing about 160 tons of gold in its capital structure system
Only
a few more days, to 30/6, gold is removed completely mobilized in the
capital structure of commercial banks, the official closing of the loan
cycle and after 12 years of open conversion mechanism.
A few days, meaning only two previous auction venue finalization of the golden state commercial banks. Look at the size of the State Bank also offered, to measure the amount of gold needed for the last minute.
Release date 27/6, the total estimated volume of 40,000 bid amount, towering 26,000 scale of each regular session last time. There
may be additional sessions 6/28 again, the last session, the amount of
which will offer basic key for the supply of goods to finalize the bank.
And learn by Bloomberg, the number required in about 2-3 tons.
Risk Capital Gold
Late in 2000, the mechanism that allows the use of a credit institution which gold is opened. There are two ways to use main banks up to 30% conversion of gold to raise money for business loans made from the gold deposit. To
30/6, the two axes are officially eliminated from the operation of the
bank along with its impact, except loans by maturity will turn yellow in
the future.
Over
the past decade, gold funds become an important component, even a major
influence on the strength characteristics and operations of commercial
banks. Besides
conversion, lending, gold is a tool used for other purposes not
prohibited by law, as well as the role of all information security
operations.
The first year of implementation mechanisms, gold was grabbed as a pleasant capital at lower interest rates. Loans in gold also has the habit of a segment of the population. To
stage 2005 - 2007, which is considered a gold resources contribute to
fever heat in the stock market, real estate and gold swirl of the floor.
But the risk is too great. Gold prices continued to rise, particularly with the explosive growth to 64.32% in 2009, 30% in 2010 and 24.09% in 2011. Reverse, the stock market and real estate prices started plunging, it can be said that crisis. Loans and lending, capital mobilization and transformation are at risk, loss and even legal risks ...
A
senior leader of the State Bank had explained to Bloomberg that
"matrix" that gold and influence its unpredictable mix of banking, the
stock exchange, real estate and even contribute to the "virtual boss" of the economy, and then lead to consequences difficult to measure with numbers. This
is a major reason for the operator step by step break with borrowing
gold resources, the rotation would split its risks from the system.
Particularly
in recent years as the system, which is the main cause of gold loss to
the hundreds of thousands in a billion of commercial banks, and is the
main contributor to the liquidity risk of collapse, or contribute to
cumulative to require mandatory restructuring.
After 6/30/2013, the risks from which gold was almost completely removed. The
echoes are the loans maturing in turn, associated with the risk of
metabolic reluctant former capital mobilized gold into gold business
trends are showing price falls, but a full-time staff of the Bank State says is "not much", and operating gold alone, is associated with a 2% limit state capital of credit institutions.
Get out of "order" ...
Respectively in 2011 and 2012, the State Bank has terminated text mobilization and lending in gold. From
this year's sprint stage to mark appointments 30/6 for a complete
cessation, but the drastic can see both of the agencies in the
inspection.
As above, gold is a risk inherent reasons. Moreover,
the golden spiral which intensified earlier levels of gold in the
economy, which is the opposite position and confidence in the USD - the
national currency (though there are many other factors that impact to its value).
The concern now is the milestone date 30/6 going to look like?
At
the industry conference last week, Governor Nguyen Van Binh said the
concessions will not realize the gold status, meaning milestone date
30/6 will not be back again. And
learn by Bloomberg, the bank has basically completed the final
settlement, only needs about 2-3 tons more that can be found in the
State Bank to scale two bidding sessions.
However,
a few banks "special", associated with the restructuring plan are
struggling to finalize certain, but sources told Bloomberg that no
large-scale processing and will have specific directions .
Notably,
in parallel with the above requirements, the settlement of the account
of the group overseas gold "G5" to sell gold to stabilize previously
been done.
Basically,
the State Bank has completed processing the backlog of capital in gold
credit institutions, separating them from the risk of system operation. This
process can peel stress in the operations of the bank concerned, noisy
information during the past year, but rather "order" in the death of a
capital inflow.
Estimated that more than a year ago, at the peak to about 160 tons of gold in the banking system, in the form of deposits. Relatively, this fund is equivalent to about 160-170 trillion. The
concern is that the State Bank has peeled a large scale such capital
out of the system without hurting liquidity, not disturbing rate, or
complications in the system. Regarding the purpose of removing gold capital risk, reduce yellowing in the economy, the operator was successful at this point.
Of course, the banks involved have certain disturbance of the capital structure, business operations and profitability. But policy and roadmap already, they had to perform and gradually get used to the absence of the gold funds.
The
remaining problem is how to enlist gone gold resources, efficient use
of the economy, instead of leaving it in cold storage in the form of
bank kept in safes or people ...
