Vietnam's stock market has heated up?

  market upturn is irreversible and investors have the opportunity to choose a relatively long-term investment


    More than a week now, on some media have said the stock market appears is "overheating". The statement comes from reports of Bespoke Investment Group and Bloomberg. Accordingly, the list of stock market is the largest increase over the period, led by Dubai stock market, with growth of 49.25%, followed by Nigeria (40.91%), Abu Dhabi (36.81% ), Kuwait (35.28%), Pakistan (32.26%) and Bulgaria (27.99%). Vietnam's stock market in seventh place, with an impressive 27.61% growth, as Bulgaria and stand behind the Japanese. Vietnam is the only Southeast Asian country shortlisted 10 growth market in the world this year. Bloomberg's report also pointed out that the P / E of the stock market in Vietnam has increased. This is the reason why foreign investment funds were net sellers on Vietnam stock market during the past week. ĐTCK introduce articles of TS. Ton Tich Quy under an opposing perspective.

    

    Vietnam's stock market is where?
 

    As of 16/6, the VN-Index gained 216.6% increase compared to the low and 26.8% from 02/24/2009 to 6/1/2012 moment. HNX-Index rose 35% compared to 9/1/2012, the date of the new bottom of the HNX-Index. This can be viewed as the recovery of the world's highest team budget?


    Looking at the statistics up and down between the top and bottom of the index Vietnam with some indices represent the world as the Dow Jones, S & P 500, Topix will see Vietnam's stock market fell nearly as strong compared with the world market. VN-Index fell to 80% and HNX-Index fell to 88% from the peak and therefore, the growth of Vietnam's stock market comes from a very low base (last column): between 20% and 12% of the top. Remember, the assets in the stock market fell quickly, but taking back what was lost very slowly. For example, an investor loses 50% of assets, they have doubled recently completed the same. VN-Index to the old top growth must be 4 times more, ie 400% new settlements, the HNX-Index rose more than 700% must be new settlements

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                          Recently, foreign investors tend to be net sellers on Vietnam's stock market


    In 2011, world stock markets rose, while the Vietnam stock market to "a horse alone" plunge. The stock market took much faster than the other when previously deep and rapid decline of the stock market in Vietnam is fair and normal, not one-sided comments is "overheating" is.


    At the end of 5/2013, the Dow Jones rose by 19.1% (on 05/28/13 15409.39 points compared to 12,938 on 12/28/12) S & P 500 rose 18.8% (1666.29 points Date 12/28/13 12/28/12 versus 1402.43 days) and this is the all time record of the two measures. Dow Jones exceeding the previous record (in table above) is 15409.39 / 14,160 points, or 8%. Similarly, the S & P500 over the previous record 1666.29 / 1,562, an increase of 6.7%.


    After the 2008 crisis, a number of stock markets in the region such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia also recorded all-time record. While the economy continues to decline the stock index to reach the all-time record at these places have a bubble and the stock market that's heating up call. If you look past the Bloomberg report from multiple angles, the major U.S. stock markets, new Japan rose hot, while Vietnam's stock market is not. If since the beginning of the end of day 17/6, VN-Index reached the highest point in the year compared to 527.97 points and 413.73 points on 28.12.2012 gained 27.6% - a figure This is quite impressive. However, if compared to the previous peak of the market at this level has only reached 45%.

    

    The stock is cheap or expensive?


    To evaluate stocks cheap or expensive, we often use a combination of indicators P / E, P / B, PEB ... According to the latest calculations by Bloomberg (maybe just based on P / E), Vietnam's stock market was more expensive after the increase (called) "hot" recently. However, with a P / E of 12 times, the price of shares on the stock market in Vietnam is still much cheaper than the domestic stock markets in the region ('re at about 17-18 times).


    It should be noted that the data on P / E data past the end of 3Q 2012 and I/2013 quarter, the most difficult period of our country's economy. Check out the P / E of the stock market's key milestones VN-Index at 509 points: BVH: 29.98 times; GAS: 10.09 times; MSN: 71.03 times; VNM: 18.78 times; VIC : 53.7 times; STB: 34.29 times; VCB: 17:06 time; GMD: 15.99 times; PVS: 4.59 times REE: 12.43 times; PPC: 5.65 times; CSM: 8, 77 times, DRC: 10.15 times; PET: 8.83 times; FPT: 7.76 times; PVD: 7.44 times; VCG: 49.4 times ... can be seen, many stocks are expensive, but very cheap stocks. Surely the big stocks as BVH, VNM, VIC, MSN have high P / E should have pulled the P / E on the general market, but in general, the price of shares in Vietnam's stock market is still very cheap. The purchase of shares to receive dividend is more beneficial savings in the bank.


    Over time, foreign investors are buying on price to push many large stocks climb, especially to push the VN-Index up, then they called expensive and discharge. This is the appeal of these techniques promote professional foreign investors, in order to entice "Lambs" eat to reap. The two largest ETF fund involved in the VNM Vietnam stock market investing in Vietnam 17 stocks with 72% of assets. They remain in the list of the last adjustment, but increased the proportion of PPC shares, VCG, PVS, ITA, PVD, PVX and reducing the proportion of investment in the HAG, PVF, SJS, STB. When investing in stocks, people do not just look at the P / E, P / E is high but growth P / E will be lower, it is usually based on P / E forecast for investment. For example, REE, P / E is 12.43 times now, but the P / E can predict the end of the year in half because of their ability within the first 6 months of this year, nearly complete REE profit plan year is 540 billion. I believe that, if foreign investors leave the stock market in Vietnam this time, they will come back to buy at higher prices.


    If such calculations and forecasts for the market in the P / E EPS estimate by the end of 2013 the number of stocks is only about 8-9 times. Many stocks are very cheap.

    

    Time to invest in gold stocks


    Most difficult period of our past. Stock market bottom up and this is true of a large wave in accordance with law. General economic and stock market movement in particular as a rule up or down 5 years, 5-year period from 2003 to 2007 increased, the period from 2008 to 2012 and the decline in the period 2013 to 2018 will be bullish. The upward trend of the market is irreversible and investors have the opportunity to choose a relatively long-term investment. We do not care too much about daily transactions, or transactions that hedge funds need to look at long-term prospects of the market.


    With the economic recovery in Vietnam, the drastic measures of the Government and the above analysis, I believe that P / E of the stock market in Vietnam will reach 12-14 times at the end of 2013. If additional note bubble world stock, VN-Index is likely to reach more than 600 points and HNX-Index could reach more than 90 points at the end of this year. Now is the time to invest in gold stocks, while investors in other channels is very inefficient. However, the increase in the price of each share will be different, the division of the stock market will be higher, as some companies rose strongly, while others are not struggling to find a way out . Therefore, the analysis to select stocks with bullish outlook as the market price is crucial flourishes won by each investor in the market.