"Developments in II/2013 quarter showed the economy is slowly recovering, productive activities - as well as the business sector, other sectors have made positive changes, in the right direction."
That is the assessment of Bui Ha, Director General of the national economy (Ministry of Planning and Investment - MPI) to GDP growth second quarter and first six months of 2013.
Increase establish new businesses ...
According to the MPI, the first 6 months of GDP growth in 2013 is estimated at 4.9%, with an increase of approximately the same period, in which the agriculture, forestry and fisheries rose 2.07%, the public sector industry and construction rose 5.18% and the services sector rose 5.92%. Mr Ha said that, although the growth rate is not as high as expected, but the increase is reasonable in the context of the economy and foreign more difficult, to give priority to curbing inflation target, macroeconomic stability for a long time.
In particular, industrial production, according to Ha, has begun to change, declining inventories. Compared to the same period last year, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased gradually each month, 6 months was estimated to increase by 5.2%. Expressed most clearly in the processing industry, manufacturing rose 4.6% in the first quarter, second quarter jumped to 6.9%. Meanwhile, the inventory region are declining, 06.01.2013 at 9.7% compared to the same period last year, down sharply from 21.5% in the of 01.01.2013.
A further highlight of the economy is the establishment of new businesses initially positive signs. Mr. Le Quang Manh, Director of Business Registration (MPI) said that the establishment of new companies registration has improved and started to increase from the same period in the last month: 4 months decreased by 1.2 % 4.8% 5 months and 6 months, up 7.8%. Besides, some companies suspend operations returned to production - also improving business each month: 4 months about 8,300 companies; 5 months about 8,800 companies; 6 months about 9,300 companies.
The increase in inventories suggests declining oil demand recovery shieu
... And investor confidence
Regarding investment in the development, evaluation Ha, capital of foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments and high performance, ODA was pretty. In the first 6 months of 2013, the realized FDI reached $ 5.7 billion, up 5.6% over the same period, including the disbursement of foreign parties reached 4.44 billion, or 78% of the total realized capital; registered capital is estimated at 10.47 billion U.S. dollars, up 15.86%.
"The FDI, including new and increased levels have started to increase after a period of continuous decline from 2008 to 2012, while maintaining capital for growth over the same period in 2012 to shows, business and investment environment in Vietnam has improved and more attractive, the confidence of investors has increased again. Besides, the investment structure has shifted positively by increasing the proportion of investment in the processing industry and manufacturing, "Ha said.
Also according to Ha, ODA increased focus by the leadership, aggressive government, the efforts of the authorities and the industry, to remove obstacles in the implementation of investment projects by this fund. Estimated 6 months, ODA disbursements reached $ 2.2 billion, equal to 51.1% of the plan in 2013, an increase of 10% over the same period.
However, Mr. Ha also said that the disbursement has not achieved as expected, but the main reason is due to problems in the clearance, lack of counterpart funds, institutional capacity and management of ODA still limited.
Total social investment capital first 6 months of 2013 is estimated to reach 401 300 billion, equal to 39.9% of the plan, including notably residential investment and private enterprises reached 110.000 billion, only was 27.5%, lower than the average of many years.
GDP for the whole year may reach 5.5%
According to the MPI, with the economic situation the world and in the country over time, as well as upcoming prospects, maybe the pressure is great to be able to achieve economic growth outlined for 2013. However, with the great efforts of the whole economy, GDP growth rate last 6 months may be higher than the first 6 months of 2013 and the whole year GDP growth could reach the planned target of 5.5% .
Experts said that the consumer price index in the last months may be higher than the first phase, mainly due to production activities - recovering business, improved purchasing power, a number of goods and services subject to government management (electricity, hospital ...) can adjust the price. Along with the resolution of bad debts in the banking system and the real estate market ... will increase aggregate demand, but consumer price index in 2013 would be at around 7%, 8% lower than the target Congress passed.
To achieve these goals on growth, solution experts are at the forefront of continuing to reduce interest rates at reasonable levels, consistent with the evolution of inflation and at the same time removing the problems and create favorable conditions for businesses to access capital, capital inflows towards production. Besides, the project expeditiously restructure credit institutions, to promote activities of Asset Management Company (VAMC), contributing to handle bad debt.
Economist Vo Tri Thanh, Deputy Director of Institute of Economic Management Central to that general picture of macroeconomic signals have been positive, but there are still potential risks. Looking more specifically, production segment - the business is still very difficult, especially agriculture which is the strength of our country.
"The goal curb inflation below 7% can be achieved, but how perform 5.5% GDP growth is not easy, he said and warned Member, difficulties and delays will continue still clinging to the economy in the long term, which has two major problems are macroeconomic stabilization and economic restructuring is still a lot of kinks to be solved.
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