Fourth quarter, the market will be positive

  "in Vietnam stock price continues to appeal to a PE of 14 times, compared with about 18 times in the Philippines," said Nguyen Hoai Nam, Deputy Head of Research Maybank Kim Eng Securities analyst exchanges with ĐTCK.


    Please tell Maybank Kim Eng forecasts of the stock market in the last 6 months of 2013?


    The market is in the process of adjusting the short term, but in the medium term, we hold a more optimistic view. You have more time IV/2013 is a positive change by: Property Management Company (VAMC) is expected to help tackle bad debt and unfreeze capital flows to the economy; any credit support package Property 30,000 billion forecast stronger disbursed in late 2013, when the procedure, the process becomes clear room for foreign investors can be increased (from 49% to 59%) in fourth quarter. Finally, the cycle of the economy shows that the stock market is around the bottom.

    

    The foreign investors tend to withdraw capital from the stock market in the region, Vietnam's stock market has been affected by this trend, he says?


    In recent months, the story about the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce packet "quantitative easing" became the focus of attention is the emerging stock markets suffer sell-off wave strong vote. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell freely during this period.


    According to our observations, foreign investors also sold in Vietnam market, putting pressure on the stock index. However, in the medium term, this trend is not serious because a few years ago, the line was continuously poured money into the stock market in the region such as Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines (TIP) to seek higher yields than with U.S. or Japanese market. Meanwhile, the limited cash flow into Vietnam markets as unrest macroeconomics. Consequently, the pressure of the foreign investors to play the position in Vietnam is not as strong as in the TIP water.


    Currently, the stock prices in Vietnam continued to appeal to a PE of 14 times, compared with about 18 times in the Philippines. The foreign investors that, following a period of high inflation, when the macroeconomy is stable again, the recovery of the economy is inevitable. Therefore, Vietnam's market still attractive to foreign investors over the medium term, especially when compared to the market in the region has become more expensive after years of strong increases.

    

    The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) targeting credit growth of 12% a year is a good sign for the stock market. According to him, the ability to 9% credit growth in remaining 6 months to become a reality?


    As of 05/31/2013, deposits increased 6.59%, while credit rose 2.98%. This is the liquidity trap that Vietnam's banking system is facing. Specifically, the rate constant was reduced 10-12% / year compared with 14-15% / year as the first, but still hard to credit growth. The current issue of credit growth is not that the output rate, lack of business effective business plan as well as commercial banks could not lend. Since then, the credit growth target in 2013 (12%) of the central bank becomes difficult to achieve.

    However, expectations are VAMC unfreeze capital flows to the economy and credit support packages real estate 30,000 billion to boost credit growth in the final months of the year.


    Also, we do not exclude the possibility that changes in credit growth in 2012 will continue in 2013. Specifically, last Nov. 11/2012, credit growth was only 5.4% nationwide but up to mid 12/2012 has increased to 6.45% and the end of 2012, the whole industry was 8.91% . This can be explained that, the banks sought to end years of credit facilities granted to the State Bank credit line for next year.

    

    When gold prices fell sharply, while the U.S. is increasing, Maybank Kim Eng has recommended investment channel for investors?


    Contrary to the belief of the majority of Vietnam investors that gold is a safe investment property long term, we believe gold will be less attractive due to the Fed's policy is to cut the stimulus package. The stronger dollar as a result of this policy will negatively impact the price of gold. Therefore, gold is hardly attractive assets in the next few years.


    Meanwhile, with the monetary easing in Vietnam, savings certificates only provide lower interest rates for investors, the stock will continue to be an asset with good profitability in the medium term.


    The surfing (amplitude time about 1-3 months) is very difficult and not suitable for most investors in the long run. Therefore, we enhance the investment value of the stock with good fundamentals and long-term holding in accordance with the economic cycle. Yields of small stock portfolio, but high income can be more profitable than savings rates.