Monday, June 17, 2013

Commercial banks facing 3 key points "deadly"







The experts at home and abroad are advised to conduct serious audit for credit institutions

 
Block 30 trillion, nobody wants to "die soon" both


Subjects loan package 30 trillion credit is very clearly defined in the circular of the State Bank 11 and Circular 07 of the Ministry of Construction. Simple, open and attractive special interest at 6% / year loan period to 10-15 years, causing many exuberantly asked to bank loans, then received the "cold water" . There are three packages of credit that can not be rushed.


First, the home buyers want a loan immediately. Even people who have mortgages and social housing, now want to contract 6% interest rate - is not included in the regulations. Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyen Tran Nam said it right: "People do not read the information from the beginning, but only read the newspapers, the media should request sufficient information to the people." No study has defined homebuyers rushed to the bank, so it is easy to despair. Borrowers are only interested in low-interest issues, long-term loans which gave the press - part of the contents of Circular 11. Which part of the truth is not necessarily true.


Second, the loans granted to gather enough information to prove themselves eligible for loans. Both the State Bank and the Ministry of Construction showed great zeal, coordinated to soon be able to disburse credit package 30 trillion. However, the relevant issue is not only between the two agencies, but a series of procedures and paperwork for a loan application to the relevant agencies, other localities. Many such doors are not new problems. For example, banks are waiting for the Ministry of Construction to the list of projects eligible for loans (less than 70m2 area, the price of 15 million m2 under construction ...), while the Ministry of Construction said it was still consideration set ...


Third, requiring commercial banks to continue sharing, sacrifice is too difficult for them at this time. Loan term will cause increased risk of the bank, while the interest rates are low, borrowers are mostly low-income, repayment capacity rather fragile. No one wants to "drop out chasing chickens," while the bank itself has to solve many problems such as bad debts rise, profits fall, restructuring ... So not sure how the lake bank Credit cheer this deployment package. Besides lending period till 01.06.2023, the bank loan back rather than rush to hurry!?.



Gold: Do not expect to be mercilessly


The establishment can solve VAMC from 40-70 trillionPack 30 trillion credit hotter part of the problem as well as yellow are provisional opinion aside. After the 15-page long report to the State Bank, and a 4 page study of Standard Chartered Bank has set up the overall picture of Vietnam gold market "definition" to detail. Maybe so gold price differences in the country and the world back to the threshold of 5 million / tael opinion but do not boil as before. Gold "cool" but the dollar began to heat up. Time 30/6 in the air. After a few sessions, the session oversold recently started buying the more positive. Perhaps they have seen, the State Bank decided not mercy, not give them time to undo. According to our sources, the bank had to accept heavy losses to balance the gold to settle the account on time. But, some others are not banks, including SCB, Eximbank, Techcombank ... The banks will have to "bite" into the gold buying at a higher price before finalization lot to keep on schedule.


In addition to buying power from the State Bank to purchase them from the market. This is the reason for increase in the dollar in recent days and is still at risk due to rising demand remains high. Not only the commercial banks collect dollars to buy gold but gold smugglers - who are enlisted to profit from the difference of 5 million / tael. Meanwhile, though the world price of gold tends to decrease, but occasionally "jump" to make the domestic gold price has increased sake, and though not much increase will increase the cost of the bank increased the amount of they need to buy gold at large. According to calculations by the State Bank to 03.05.2013, the banks need another 25 tonnes of gold to settle the balance of gold deposit. Meanwhile, on the date 28.03.2013 to 06.07.2013, 28 auction through this agency has sold approximately 27.3 tons of gold. Thus, to the finish line on time, make sure the banks are also large gold deposit balance will suffer "loss". The difference between the domestic price of gold and the world's immediate problems and concerns of the commercial banks. But after 30/6, when commercial banks do not buy a lot more gold, gold price gap narrowing? Wait and see!



Bad Debt: Romance reunion!


In 2012, the credit institutions have used for nearly 70 trillion NPLs. In the first 4 months of this year they were treated to approximately 7.5 trillion from the risk reserve at the same time setting to be 68 trillion NPLs. The establishment of the Asset Management Company of the credit institutions in Vietnam (VAMC) will be able to help resolve from 40-70 trillion of bad debt. However, the question is for the moment there is no exact number of loans to be processed by the credit institutions. The experts at home and abroad are advised to conduct serious audit for credit institutions. They themselves know best their bad debt is. If banks want to hide the fear that bad debts can not "prescribe" full dose. Second, the collateral of the bad loans are mostly real estate. That handle these assets which are not simple, this real estate plummeted, the problem becomes more complex.


The experts in the country and abroad are advised to seriously audit conducted for credit institutionsVAMC will issue special bonds to reduce NPLs. After getting money from the VAMC, the credit institutions holding these bonds to the State Bank to get 50% discount refinancing. They will have to set aside a sum of money to ensure payment after 5 years with the VAMC. Under the provisions of Decision has been issued for 843/QD-TTg NPLs and VAMC operations, the credit institution must "arrange capital, all property sales, property handover of security ownership of the borrower to repay the principal and interest for the VAMC or credit institutions authorized VAMC. " In the case of credit institutions can not afford to pay for their VAMC will continue to sell debt in the form of capital contribution or sale of shares. And so, the question is to increase the percentage of ownership shares to investors, including foreign investors, commercial banks.

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