Entering July, the USD / VND will all "hot"?

► Rate the last few days though but not up "hot" to the extent necessary to give warnings ..

On the free market, the last day also witnessed a strong appreciation of the greenback, while transactions are common in both directions at the 21,200 buyers and sellers.

From the beginning of the month 6/2013, the USD / VND began to rise with a special sign purchase price equal to the price reappear after many years. What is happening, whether this is a temporary phenomenon or a sustainable trend?

Rate increasing signs within the past 2 weeks. Currently, the dollar sold at many popular commercial banking ceiling 21,036 VND / USD.

On the free market, the last day also witnessed a strong appreciation of the greenback, while transactions are common in both directions at the 21,200 buyers and sellers.

There are two things pretty "special" rate increases during this time: One is, do not just increase the rates at the commercial banks and the free market that the State Bank is also adjusted accordingly, the now (as of 16/6) State Bank has increased prices in USD Exchange from 20,950 VND / USD to ceiling is 21,036 VND / USD, and the way to buy the 20,850 listed.

Entering July, the USD / VND will all "hot"? 1Hien now, the dollar sold at many popular commercial banking ceiling 21,036 VND / USD.

Second, the general rate tables at many banks in the past few days is very narrow trade gap, only from 6 to over 10 co-co. This confirms the demand for dollar is really strong, not just a temporary adjustment dynamics of the ice.

Looking back rate chart can be seen from the beginning of the year, this is the 3rd time the USD / VND increase. Twice before rising dollar has caused much debate, even VND devaluation issues also have been raised, but then declined rapidly thereafter. 3rd time this will rise to end up like 2 times before and would create a new exception is an interesting problem to attract the attention of the financial and banking experts.

Chained to the things we can see very clearly is far from the end of 2011, the State Bank to stabilize the average exchange rate in the interbank 20,828 VND / USD. Rate held for 18 consecutive months.

However, the spokesman of myself during this time, the leaders of the State Bank confirmed that certainly will not devalue USD, but will not try to keep the USD / VND at all costs that will have the flexibility to adjust in accordance with the requirements of the market in each period.

"Rates are facing pressure from the balance of payments and the demand of the market," TS. Le Xuan Nghia - Institute of Research and Business Development, analysis, while the commercial banks to restrict lending in foreign currency market, currency trading is primarily the negative foreign exchange status increases cause downward pressure on the exchange rate.

In addition, the balance of the credit balance of foreign currency is falling, foreign exchange shift to precarious balance. Regarding the concerns of many that the price increase in the past few weeks should be a wave or trend, he said: "With such a trade deficit in May, maybe this is a trend factor so, the market has started speculation "and added, later this year, the State Bank to maintain the exchange rate 1%, if not the market will have waves.

It should be noted, twice the previous rate increase to the economy at a time when Vietnam's trade surplus continued in 2012. However, this rate increase during the same right we're back to the trade deficit, the leap in May to $ 1.9 billion deficit this caused considerable pressure for rates.

Analyzing more in detail with reporters, financial experts Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that current exchange rates are also subject to great pressure by another problem: the exchange rate in recent days related to the banks to settle the status of gold before 30/6.

Accordingly, the demand for repayment of loans come due, or import gold, speculators can make USD jumped. Then the difference in the price of gold and foreign agents should also be increased USD.

Also, before, money savings rate higher than the U.S. rate should pretty much send people tend to sell dollars to the bank to cash the savings. This difference between U.S. interest rates and the money is not as high as before, a shift from dollars to dong has conceived again, people buying dollar savings increase.

Yet, the opinion was that this time the exchange rate due to heat can also speculation by commercial banks. There phenomenon commercial banks buy dollars with State Bank rate plus or minus 1% (21,036 VND / USD), but marketed for freedom (21.250 VND / USD) in order to profit ...

However, in a global way, the general perception of the experts if rates were pushed up by the reasons mentioned above, the pressure will not last long. When completed the bank balance gold status, the status of "tension" of the exchange rate will also terminate. Rate the last few days despite increased but not "hot" to the extent necessary to give warning. Maybe through December 6/2013, can this situation will calm down for gold demand, pressure on the exchange rate also reduced.

Entering July, the USD / VND will all "hot"? Than 2 billion last few days despite price increases but not "hot" to the extent necessary to give warning.

If the above statement is true, can increase this rate to breeze past such as increasing twice before, but in the eyes of many economists to support exports in 2013 still need to adjusted exchange rates.

Dr. Still said. Le Xuan Nghia, the USD is now being appreciated more against the dollar around 20-21%. In addition, the USD also appreciated more than about 3-4% compared with 19 coins Vietnam has trade relations, if not adjust the exchange rate, it will take a number of undesirable consequences, which firstly adverse impact on exports.

In space, the competitiveness of exports of goods decreased by Vietnam were up, profits of export enterprises more poorly. So, to the exporters are not disadvantaged, the exchange rate should be adjusted, as well as to balance the current account balance and the balance of international payments, consider adjusting the range 2 - 3%.